McGreevey Maintains Lead Over Final Weekend; Final Margin Hinges on Turnout

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Survey Details

While Democrat Jim McGreevey still holds a substantial lead over Republican Bret Schundler in the race for governor, the final outcome will be affected by the level of turnout. Over the weekend, both major-party candidates solidified their base while some independents may be having second thoughts.

During the final weekend of the campaign season (Nov 2-4), Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind interviewed 441 likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points.

Among those 441 likely voters polled over the weekend who are fully committed to a candidate, 50% say they are supporting Democrat Jim McGreevey and 34% said they are supporting Republican Bret Schundler in a two-way contest between the major-party candidates. When all leaners are included, McGreevey leads Schundler by 53 to 36. Still, 12 percent are undecided.

In a three-way contest, support for independent candidate Bill Schluter remains in the low single digits and has no measurable impact on the margin between the two major candidates.

The weekend interviews indicate that both major-party candidates continued to solidify their party base, though this was especially true for Democrats. Among self-described Democrats, 93% said they would vote for McGreevey - up from 85% last week. Meanwhile, 79% of self-identified Republicans said they would support Schundler - only slightly up from 77% percent last week. Late endorsements of the Republican candidate by New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani as well as President George Bush have not had a strong impact on Republicans.

While McGreevey continued to outpace Schundler 45% to 34% among self-described independents, a relatively large 21 per cent of independents interviewed over the weekend said they were now undecided. This number is up from 12% of independents interviewed last week. The trends detected in the weekend poll were also reflected by a number of undecided voters who were re-interviewed over the weekend. These voters showed a preference for Schundler.

McGreevey has a good chance of pulling with him some candidates for the state legislature. Among likely voters, 47% percent say they will vote for Democratic candidates for the Assembly and State Senate while 33% say they will vote for Republican candidates. These numbers are up from 41% and 36%, respectively, among respondents interviewed last week.

Turnout for Tuesday's election remains difficult to forecast. Fewer people now are saying they are planning to vote as a patriotic response to the terrorist attacks than said so in early October. According to political scientist Bruce Larson, "turnout remains the mystery for Tuesday's election, and turnout could make a substantial difference in the margin of the race." Joe Calvanelli, Director of Polling, agreed: "The final margin will depend on turnout. Lower turnout will favor Schundler. Higher turnout will favor McGreevey."

Poll Analysis

Professor Bruce Larson, survey analyst: 973-443-8727.

Rick Thigpen, academic associate, 609-394-0888.

Steve Salmore, research professor of political science: 973-292-3633.

Peter Woolley, coordinator: 973-301-0709.

Copyright © 2001, Fairleigh Dickinson University. All rights reserved. FDU PublicMind Poll [Latest update 011105]