An Electorate Unmoved:
Lautenberg Checks Republican Gain

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Tabular Results
Survey Details

November 3, 2002

After a final weekend of campaigning, former Senator Frank Lautenberg leads his Republican rival by a seven point margin, 43 to 36 percent, according to the most recent Fairleigh Dickinson University poll. When voters who lean are included in the totals, Lautenberg's advantage stretches to nine percentage points, 47 to 38 percent. Meanwhile, 3% say they will vote for some other candidate and 14% remain undecided.

Little changed after a final weekend of interviewing. "Many voters appear to be waiting until they get into the voting booth to make their final decision," commented Bruce Larson, professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson University and survey analyst for the PublicMind. "But late deciders often break more favorably for the challenger—which Forrester effectively is in this contest."

Doug Forrester leads only in the northwestern part of the state, including Morris, Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, and Somerset counties. Elsewhere, he comes closest to Lautenberg in central New Jersey, including Ocean, Burlington, Mercer, Monmouth, and Middlesex counties.

When leaners are included, female voters favor Lautenberg by a margin of 49 to 33 percent, whereas male voters split almost evenly between the two candidates (44% for Lautenberg, 42% for Forrester). Pro-choice voters—who usually outnumber pro-life voters—break for the Democrat by 54 to 33 percent.

"Various turnout models we examined do not significantly influence the result," added Larson. "A particularly low turnout may benefit the Republicans somewhat, but probably not enough to push them over the victory line in this race," said Larson. "At this point, the race will tighten up only if the undecided voters—always the wild card—break for Forrester."

The survey of 921 likely New Jersey voters was conducted from October 28 through November 3 and has a margin of error of ± 3.2 percentage points.

Poll Analysis

Fairleigh Dickinson Professor, Dr. Bruce Larson can be reached at (973) 443-8727