Response by Rick Thigpen
Bush's brand of conservative Republican
politics is not selling very well
in New Jersey. The more Bush does what it takes politically to
pursue his
southern- and western-oriented electoral strategy, the harder it gets for him
to carry New Jersey. Additionally, the public is clearly dissatisfied with
the
President's performance in office. Taken together, this leaves little room
for doubt that New Jersey belongs to Kerry. Bet on it.
The big variable is turnout. And turnout is more of a wild card in this first
national election in the "McCain-Feingold era."
This poll indicates a surprising development that would be very significant
if it holds up on election day. Kerry is showing increasing support among
male voters, surprising for a Democrat. If he can repeat this politically
potent feat nationally, in battleground states, he'll have it made in the
shade on November 2nd.
see also:
Survey Analysis
Salmore's Analysis
Tabular Results
Survey Details
Comment by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind Academic Associate, Rick Thigpen (J.D., Columbia University Law School). Rick is a former Executive Director of the New Jersey Democratic Party and now a partner in The Strategy Group and is a campaign coordinator for the Essex County Democratic Party. Rick Thigpen, Esq. can be reached at (609) 394-0888.