Tables

Question: In your opinion, do you believe that the country is moving in the right direction or do you believe it has gotten off on the wrong track?

October 22

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

36%

9

33

72

37

35

Wrong track

52%

84

44

15

53

52

Don’t know/Unsure

12%

 8

24

13

11

14

October 15

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

36%

12

35

67

36

36

Wrong track

54%

84

46

19

52

55

Don’t know/Unsure

11%

  4

20

14

13

  9

October 12

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

36%

13

34

66

37

34

Wrong track

53%

81

51

18

51

55

Don’t know/Unsure

12%

  6

16

16

12

11

Post-debate: Oct. 7

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

34

11

17

67

39

31

Wrong track

54

79

61

21

52

55

Don’t know/Unsure

12

10

22

12

10

14

Pre-debate: Sept 29

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

35%

11

19

73

41

31

Wrong track

52%

79

56

17

50

54

Don’t know/Unsure

13%

10

26

10

  9

16


Question: How would you rate the job George W. Bush is doing as President—excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

Oct. 22

All

Dem

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Excellent

16%

 2

15

37

18

16

Good

25%

 8

32

46

25

26

Only fair

22%

30

21

11

22

21

Poor

34%

58

26

  6

34

35

Don’t know/Unsure (vol)

  2%

 2

  6

  1

  2

  3


Question: How would you rate the job George W. Bush is doing handling the economy—excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

 Oct. 22

All

Dem

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Excellent

10%

 2

  5

23

10

10

Good

25%

 5

20

52

24

26

Only fair

21%

24

29

15

21

22

Poor

43%

68

43

  9

45

41

Don’t know/Unsure (vol)

  1%

 1

  3

  1

  1

  2


Question: How would you rate the job George W. Bush is doing handling foreign affairs and national security—excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

 Oct. 22

All

Dem

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Excellent

19%

 3

15

42

22

16

Good

24%

 9

35

39

22

25

Only fair

19%

26

17

11

19

19

Poor

37%

61

30

  7

36

38

Don’t know/Unsure (vol)

  2%

  2

  3

  1

  2

 2


Question:  Later this year, there will be an election for President of the United States. If the election were held today do you think you would vote for …. or …. [ROTATE] ?  If “unsure,” or “don’t know” ask “which way do you lean?”

October 22

Base = 503 likely voters

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

George Bush, the Republican Candidate

40

 9

33

85

40

40

      lean Bush

 1

--

 2

  2

  1

 2

John Kerry, the Democratic candidate

46

80

30

  8

47

45

     lean Kerry

 3

 5

 3

 1

 3

 3

Nader or Other (vol.)

 1

 1

 4

 1

 2

 1

Don’t know (vol.)

 9

 6

28

 4

 9

 9

Post-debate: Oct. 15

Base= 508 likely voters

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

George Bush, the Republican Candidate

42

11

43

80

42

42

      lean Bush

  4

  2

  6

  6

 5

  3

John Kerry, the Democratic candidate

44

78

31

  7

41

47

     lean Kerry

  2

 3

 2

  1

 2

  2

Nader or Other (vol.)

  2

 2

 4

  2

 3

  1

Don’t know (vol.)

  6

 5

15

  4

 7

  6

Post-debate: Oct. 12

Base= 500 likely voters

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

George Bush, the Republican Candidate

40

 9

34

81

40

39

      lean Bush

  3

 2

 5

  4

  3

  3

John Kerry, the Democratic candidate

46

81

36

  6

43

49

     lean Kerry

  2

 2

--

  2

 2

  2

Nader or Other (vol.)

  2

 2

  2

--

 3

  1

Don’t know (vol.)

  8

 4

25

  6

10

  7

Post-debate: Oct. 7

Base= 500 likely voters

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

George Bush, the Republican Candidate

39

 9

26

79

43

36

      lean Bush

  2

 1

--

  4

  2

  2

John Kerry, the Democratic candidate

47

79

44

10

46

48

     lean Kerry

 2

 4

  2

  1

  3

 2

Nader or Other (vol.)

 2

 1

  6

  2

  4

 1

Don’t know (vol.)

 8

 7

 23

  4

  4

12

Pre-debate: September 29

Base= 489 likely voters

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

George Bush, the Republican Candidate

41

11

35

85

45

38

      lean Bush

  3

 2

--

3

  1 

  4

John Kerry, the Democratic candidate

43

76

35

5

43

43

     lean Kerry

  2

  3

 3

1

  2

  2

Nader or Other (vol.)

  2

  --

 1

2

  2

  2

Don’t know (vol.)

10

  7

 25

4

  8

11


Question:  Are you satisfied with choice of candidates you have for President in this election or do you wish there were different candidates?

 

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Satisfied

49

46

36

56

Wish for different choices

47

49

58

42

Don’t know (vol.)

 4

 5

  6

  2


Question: In deciding their vote for president, people focus on different things. Which one of the following issues is the most important to you in deciding who to vote for for President…?

On that issue, _____, which candidate would do a better job?

[ROTATE LIST]

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Men

Women

Bush

Kerry

N=

The state of the economy

23%

27

28

16

25

22

22

62

116

national security and the war on terror

43%

29

33

64

40

44

65

29

214

quality of the environment

 2%

  2

  4

 2

  4

 1

18

63

12

providing health care insurance

11%

18

10

   3

14

 9

10

77

56

improving education

 6%

 6

  6

 6

 7

 6

28

49

30

Other (vol)

 1%

 1

--

 1

 1

 1

 

None (vol.)

 1%

 1

--

 1

 1

 1

All (vol.)

13%

15

20

 7

 9

16

Don’t know (vol.)

 1%

  1

--

 1

 1

  1


Question: Now, in deciding their vote for president, people also focus on different qualities in a candidate.  Which one of the following qualities is most important to you in deciding who to vote for for President…?

And which candidate is better described by that quality…?

[ROTATE LIST]

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Men

Women

Bush

Kerry

N=

Being a strong leader

30

19

31

42

33

26

66

25

147

Understanding the concerns of the average person

23

35

21

  8

25

21

10

83

115

Honest and trustworthy

36

34

32

38

32

39

42

45

179

Other (vol)

--

  1

--

--

  1

--

 

None (vol.)

  1

  2

--

--

  1

  1

All (vol.)

10

  9

15

11

  8

12

Don’t know (vol.)

  1

 1

  2

  1

  1

  1


Question: Recently two Presidential candidates held a debate. Did you personally watch or hear the debate or did you not have the chance?

 

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Yes

82%

80

86

83

No

18%

20

14

17



Question: Based on what you saw or read, which candidate do you think did better in the debates?

 

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Most important issue is National Security (N=X)

Bush

21

  5

26

42

31

Kerry

57

83

44

28

42

Neither (vol)

  3

  2

  6

  3

  4

Both equally/tie (vol)

12

  8

13

18

16

Not sure (vol)

  6

  3

10

10

  7



Question: How well is the U.S. military effort in Iraq going…?

 

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Sept

04

July

‘04

April

 ‘04

Jan

‘04

Sept

 ‘03

Very well

  8%

 3

10

13

 9

17

17

21

21

Fairly well

36%

16

31

65

31

42

38

48

40

Not too well

27%

36

27

17

31

25

27

19

25

Not at all well

27%

43

23

 4

26

13

12

  8

10

Unsure

 2%

 2

  9

 2

 4

 4

  6

  3

  4


Question:  Considering everything, do you think the United States did the right thing in going to war with Iraq, or do you think it was a mistake?

 

Party

Gender

 

All

Dem

Ind.

Rep

Men

Women

Right thing

42%

16

50

75

44

41

Mistake

52%

81

37

20

52

52

Don’t know (vol.)

 6%

  4

13

  5

 4

  7


Question: Now, regardless of which candidate you want to win, if you had to guess, who would you say is going to win the election for President in November… or …?

Oct. 22

All

Dem

Ind

Rep.

John Kerry

30%

47

19

14

George Bush

49%

32

53

72

Don’t Know/Too close to call [vol]

20%

21

28

14

Oct. 12

All

Dem

Ind

Rep.

John Kerry

31%

53

23

  6

George Bush

49%

29

48

76

Don’t Know/Too close to call [vol]

19%

18

29

18

Post-debate: Oct. 7

All

Dem

Ind

Rep.

John Kerry

23%

37

23

 7

George Bush

56%

41

41

78

Don’t Know/Too close to call [vol]

21%

21

35

15

Pre-debate: Sept 29

All

Dem

Ind

Rep.

John Kerry

22%

34

18

 8

George Bush

66%

49

60

88

Don’t Know/Too close to call [vol]

13%

16

22

  4


Question: Regardless of who you think will win the national election, which candidate do you think will get the most votes in New Jersey?

 

All

Dem

Ind

Rep.

John Kerry

64%

79

46

51

George Bush

20%

10

28

30

Don’t Know/Too close to call [vol]

17%

11

26

19

Contacts:
Rick Thigpen, academic associate, 609-394-0888.
Steve Salmore, research professor of political science: 973-292-3633.
Peter Woolley, coordinator: 973-443-8725

Radio actuality line: (201) 692-2846.

For more information, please call (201) 692-7032.

see also:

Survey Analysis
Salmore's Analysis
Thigpen's Analysis
Survey Details

Copyright © 2004, Fairleigh Dickinson University. All rights reserved. FDU PublicMind Poll [Latest update 041022]