Response by Stephen Salmore

Democrat Joe Coniglio’s double digit lead over Republican challenger Rose Heck confirms that redistricting in 2001 has accomplished what ten years of Democratic campaigns in the 1990’s could not.  District 38 has shifted from Republican leaning to Democratic leaning.

The Democratic tilt in the district can be seen, not only in the registration numbers – these have favored the Democrats for many years – but also in the Poll’s findings that 38^th District voters give Gov. Jim McGreevey more favorable opinions and ratings than do voters statewide.

By most measures, Rose Heck is a formidable candidate.  Her name recognition and favorability are almost identical to Coniglio’s.  She has the solid support of her Republican base and has a small lead among independent voters.  However, the larger Democratic base in the District means that Coniglio can win just by keeping Democratic voters in his column and does need much, if any, support from independents and Republican cross over voters.

With two weeks still left in the campaign, Heck can still win, but with the Democratic edge in the district, she needs to win big among independent voters as well as attract a substantial number of Democratic defectors.  Winning votes in your opponent’s base is always a tall order.

Comment by Fairleigh Dickinson University Research Professor of Political Science, Stephen Salmore (Ph.D., Princeton University). Steve specializes in both national and New Jersey politics and presently operates Raritan Associates, Inc. He is co-author of Parties, Elections and Campaigns and New Jersey Government and Politics. Dr. Stephen Salmore can be reached at 973-292-3633.