Response by Stephen Salmore

The perception that New Jersey is strongly Democratic is of fairly recent origin. In fact, before the Clinton presidency, New Jersey was slightly more Republican than the rest of the country. It was only with the end of the Cold War and the increasing importance of domestic issues that New Jersey moved into the Democratic column.

This year with the re-emergence of national security as the dominant campaign issue, New Jersey is once again competitive. Voters, particularly women voters, are focused on this issue and by a large margin they clearly prefer George Bush. Although quite concerned about how the war is going, they prefer Bush’s approach to John Kerry’s.

With George Bush the exit strategy is victory. With Kerry the exit strategy is “how do we give up as gracefully and as soon as possible?”Unless John Kerry can reassure voters on his ability to deal with national security issues, especially with female voters, he will not win. The specter of McGovern still hangs over the Democratic Party.

see also:
Survey Analysis
Thigpen's Analysis
Tabular Results
Survey Details

Comment by Fairleigh Dickinson University Research Professor of Political Science, Stephen Salmore (Ph.D., Princeton University). Steve specializes in both national and New Jersey politics and presently operates Raritan Associates, Inc. He is co-author of Parties, Elections and Campaigns and New Jersey Government and Politics. Dr. Stephen Salmore can be reached at 973-292-3633.