FDU PublicMind - July 20, 2006 Release

Background Memo

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind was conducted by telephone from July 10 through July 16 using a randomly selected sample of 675 registered voters statewide. The sampling error for 675 respondents is +/- 4 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers. All PublicMind interviews are conducted by TMR, Inc. of Cedar Knolls, NJ. Professionally trained interviewers use a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection is achieved through computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

The questions included in this release are as follows:

Question: Later this year there will be an election for the US Senator representing New Jersey…. Do you happen to know the names of the two major party candidates?

Question: Have you heard of [rotate list]? If you haven't just tell me. [If yes, ask:] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of …? Would that be very or somewhat?

Bob Menendez
Tom Kean, Jr.

Question: Later this year there will be an election for New Jersey's U.S. Senator between Bob Menendez, the Democrat and Tom Kean, Jr, the Republican? So far, how much have you heard or read about this race…[READ]?

A great deal
Some
Just a little
Nothing at all

Question: If the election for U.S. Senate were held right now, and you had to make a choice, which candidate would you vote for… or … ? [If choose ask: “Are you sure or might you change your mind?” If “unsure” ask:] Which way do you lean…or…?

Question: By the way, do you happen to know which party currently holds a majority of seats in the US Senate?

Question: Which candidate for Senate … or … is best described by…?

Bob Menendez
Tom Kean, Jr.

Honest, trustworthy
Can get the job done for New Jersey?
Understands the concerns of the average person
Has the background and experience to be a good US Senator
Negative campaigner
Independent of the party bosses and large campaign contributors

Question: Are you satisfied with the choice of candidates you have for Senate in this election or do you wish there were different candidates?

Question: Now, regardless of which candidate you want to win, if you had to guess, who would you say is going to win the election for US Senate in November… or …?

Bob Menendez
Tom Kean, Jr.

Question: Do you expect it to be close or not very close?

Question: How strongly are your views of this Senate election influenced by national concerns, such as the economy or the military action in Iraq?

Question: Now, turning to a different election, this November there will also be an election for the House of Representatives in Washington. In your district do you plan to vote for… [ROTATE] or… ?

the Republican candidate for Congress
the Democratic candidate for Congress

Question: And what about Bob Menendez? Do you consider Bob Menendez to be liberal or conservative?

Question: And what about Tom Kean, Jr.? Do you consider Tom Kean, Jr. to be liberal or conservative?

Question Ordering: Questions about President Bush and the military action in Iraq were placed either before questions about the Senate race, after the questions about the Senate race, or split, with questions about Bush coming before, and questions about Iraq coming after. Specifically:

One-third of respondents, selected at random, were asked questions US1-US5 before being asked questions about their vote intention for the US Senate. One-third of respondents, selected at random, were asked questions US1-US3 before being asked questions about their vote intention for the US Senate and were asked US4 and US5 afterwards. One-third of respondents, selected at random, were asked questions US1-US5 only after being asked questions about their vote intention for the US Senate.

US1. In your opinion, do you believe that the country is moving in the right direction or do you believe it has gotten off on the wrong track?

US2. How would you rate the job George W. Bush is doing as President-excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

US3. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

US4. Now, turning to Iraq. how well is the U.S. military effort in Iraq going. [READ].Very well, fairly well, not too well, not at all well?

US5. Considering everything, do you think the United States did the right thing in going to war with Iraq, or do you think it was a mistake?