September 27, 2002

In this autumn's campaign for New Jersey's U.S. Senator, both candidates want Garden Staters to vote against the other guy. Republican Doug Forrester says the incumbent Democratic Senator is not honest or trustworthy. Democrat Bob Torricelli says that Forrester is an out-of-the-mainstream conservative whose election would turn the Senate over to conservative ideologues. According to the results of the latest Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, voters agree more with Forrester than Torricelli.

When asked which candidate they consider "honest and trustworthy," likely voters chose Republican Forrester over Democrat Torricelli by 39% to 17% with the rest volunteering either "both" (38%) or "neither" (6%). Among self-identified Democrats, Torricelli could manage only a tie at 25% for each candidate. Meanwhile, Republicans chose Forrester as the more honest by a margin of 59% to 7%, while independents chose Forrester by a margin of 44% to 12%. Fairleigh Dickinson professor of political science and survey analyst Bruce Larson said that "Torricelli has two electoral problems. Independents, who are the swing voters that usually decide elections, see him as ethically challenged while Democrats are hesitating about him."

On the other hand, when voters were asked about other candidate qualities, Torricelli did much better. By 42% to 22%, voters picked the Democrat as having "the background and experience to be a good senator." By a narrower 37% to 32% margin, Torricelli was seen as better able "to get the job done for New Jersey." When asked to choose the candidate that better "understands the concerns of the average person," Torricelli topped Forrester by 35% to 26%.

Asked about the ideological leanings of the two Senate candidates, 53% of likely voters saw Torricelli as liberal, 16% said he was conservative, and 16% said he was in-between or moderate. Forrester was seen as conservative by 46%, with 15% choosing liberal and 11% volunteering in-between or moderate. Among those who saw Forrester as a conservative, just 13% considered him to be "very conservative."

By a small plurality, 44% to 39%, all voters believed that "in terms of liberal or conservative" Torricelli was closer to their ideological position. Yet among self-described moderates, 43% felt Forrester was closer to them ideologically while 34% said Torricelli was closer. A plurality of self-identified Independents were unsure.

Is a critical reason to vote for Bob Torricelli "to prevent Trent Lott and other very conservative Republicans from becoming leaders of the U.S. Senate"? While 47% of all voters disagreed with this statement and 44% of Independents disagreed, a majority of Democrats agreed.

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll was conducted from September 18 to 23 and surveyed 601 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/ 4%.

Poll Analysis

Fairleigh Dickinson Professor, Dr. Bruce Larson can be reached at (973) 443-8727