Response by Stephen Salmore

Torricelli's message that Forrester is "out of the mainstream" and his election will empower ultra conservatives in the Senate is not resonating with the public for two reasons. First, without credibility, many voters will not believe what the Senator charges. And second, Forrester doesn't fit the description of an extreme conservative. Neither his demeanor nor issue positions are seen as out of step or threatening. Torricelli's charges are not likely to resonate with voters other than strongly committed Democrats, and there are not enough of them to win.

see also:
Larson's Analysis
Thigpen's Analysis
Tabular Results
Survey Details

Comment by Fairleigh Dickinson University Research Professor of Political Science, Stephen Salmore (Ph.D., Princeton University). Steve specializes in both national and New Jersey politics and presently operates Raritan Associates, Inc. He is co-author of Parties, Elections and Campaigns and New Jersey Government and Politics.

Dr. Stephen Salmore can be reached at 973-292-3633