Background Memo  

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind was conducted by telephone from September 26 through October 2 using a randomly selected statewide sample of 514 likely registered voters. The sampling error for 514 respondents is +/- 4 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers. PublicMind interviews are conducted by TMR, Inc. of Parsippany, NJ. Professionally trained interviewers use a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) System. Random selection is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected. Registered voters are screened through a series of questions. Results are mathematically weighted to match known demographics.

The questions included in this release are as follows:

Question: Have you heard of [rotate list]? If you haven’t just tell me. [If yes, ask:] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of …? Would that be very or somewhat?

Question: Later this year there will be an election for New Jersey’s U.S. Senator between Bob Menendez, the Democrat and Tom Kean, Jr, the Republican? So far, how much have you heard or read about this race…[READ]?

Question: If the election for U.S. Senate were held right now, and you had to make a choice, which candidate would you vote for… or … ? [If choose ask: "Are you sure or might you change your mind?" If "unsure" ask:] Which way do you lean…or…?

Question Ordering: Questions about President Bush and the military action in Iraq were placed either before questions about the Senate race or after the questions about the Senate race.

Question: Which candidate for Senate… or … is best described by…?

Question: Now, regardless of which candidate you want to win, if you had to guess, who would you say is going to win the election for Senate in November… or …?

Question: Is there anything in particular that you like about Bob Menendez?/ Is there anything in particular that you dislike about Bob Menendez? (Rotate names of candidates)

Question: Is there anything in particular that you like about Tom Kean, Jr.?/ Is there anything in particular that you dislike about Tom Kean, Jr.? (Rotate names of candidates)

Question Ordering: Open-ended questions about likes and dislikes were placed either before questions about the Senate race or after the questions about the Senate race.

Question: How strongly are your views of this Senate election influenced by national concerns, such as the economy or the military action in Iraq?

see also:
Survey Analysis
Republican Response

Democratic Response
Tabular Results

Copyright © 2006, Fairleigh Dickinson University. All rights reserved. FDU PublicMind Poll [Latest update 061005]