Response to Gubernatorial Poll by Stephen Salmore

“For all practical purposes, election day will not determine if Schundler wins or loses but rather what his future will be. McGreevey’s lead at this point appears too great to overcome even with a last minute surge. If the race turns out to be fairly close, he will remain a contender for the nomination in 2005 and a Republican whose views will carry some weight. On the other hand, if he loses by a wide margin, his influence in the party will be greatly diminished and the Republican field for 2005 will be wide open.

“The other open question to be answered on election day is who will control the legislature. And that still is not clear. Even a large McGreevey win for governor may not necessarily produce a large Democratic gain in the legislature. Even when Jim Florio defeated Jim Courter by more than 20 per cent, Democrats only picked up five seats in the Assembly. And Republicans actually lost seats in the Assembly in both of Christie Whitman’s victories.”

see also:
Larson's Analysis
Thigpen's Analysis
Tabular Results
Survey Details

Comment by Fairleigh Dickinson University Research Professor of Political Science, Stephen Salmore (Ph.D., Princeton University). Steve specializes in both national and New Jersey politics and presently operates Raritan Associates, Inc. He is a co-founder of the Eagleton Poll and co-author of Parties, Elections and Campaigns and New Jersey Government and Politics.

Dr. Stephen Salmore can be reached at 973-292-3633