Background Memo  

The most recent polling results by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind are part of a tracking poll begun on September 23 and conducted by telephone using a statewide, randomly selected sample of likely voters in New Jersey. These results are from 549 interviews conducted from October 21 to October 28.  “Likely voters” are registered voters who have voted in the last 4 years and have a good or excellent chance of voting in this year’s Presidential contest. The sampling error for 549 adults is +/- 4 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers. All PublicMind interviews are conducted by TMR, Inc. of Cedar Knolls, NJ.  Professionally trained interviewers use a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection is achieved through computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected.

The wording and order of the questions included in this release are as follows:

Question: In your opinion, do you believe that the country is moving in the right direction or do you believe it has gotten off on the wrong track?

Question: How would you rate the job George W. Bush is doing as President—excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

Question:  Later this year, there will be an election for President of the United States. If the election were held today do you think you would vote for …. or …. [ROTATE] ?  If “unsure,” or “don’t know” ask “which way do you lean?”

Question: In deciding their vote for president, people focus on different things. Which one of the following issues is the most important to you in deciding who to vote for for President…?

Question: On that issue, _____, which candidate would do a better job?

Question: Now, in deciding their vote for president, people also focus on different qualities in a candidate.  Which one of the following qualities is most important to you in deciding who to vote for for President…?

And which candidate is better described by that quality…?

Question: How well is the U.S. military effort in Iraq going…?

Question: Considering everything, do you think the United States did the right thing in going to war with Iraq, or do you think it was a mistake?

Question: Now, regardless of which candidate you want to win, if you had to guess, who would you say is going to win the election for President in November… or …?

Question: Regardless of who you think will win the national election, which candidate do you think will get the most votes in New Jersey?

see also:
Survey Analysis
Thigpen's Analysis
Salmore's Analysis
Tabular Results

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Copyright © 2004, Fairleigh Dickinson University. All rights reserved. FDU PublicMind Poll [Latest update 041029]