Question: In your opinion, do you believe that the country is moving in the right direction or do you believe it has gotten off on the wrong track?

October 29

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

37%

12

29

73

42

34

Wrong track

52%

76

56

20

48

55

Don’t know/Unsure

11%

12

14

  7

10

11

October 22

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

36%

9

33

72

37

35

Wrong track

52%

84

44

15

53

52

Don’t know/Unsure

12%

 8

24

13

11

14

October 15

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

36%

12

35

67

36

36

Wrong track

54%

84

46

19

52

55

Don’t know/Unsure

11%

  4

20

14

13

  9

October 12

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

36%

13

34

66

37

34

Wrong track

53%

81

51

18

51

55

Don’t know/Unsure

12%

  6

16

16

12

11

Post-debate: Oct. 7

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

34%

11

17

67

39

31

Wrong track

54%

79

61

21

52

55

Don’t know/Unsure

12%

10

22

12

10

14

Pre-debate: Sept 29

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

35%

11

19

73

41

31

Wrong track

52%

79

56

17

50

54

Don’t know/Unsure

13%

10

26

10

  9

16

Question: How would you rate the job George W. Bush is doing as President—excellent, good, only fair, or poor?

Oct. 29

All

Dem

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Excellent

15%

 2

 9

33

16

14

Good

26%

13

23

45

27

26

Only fair

24%

29

34

14

22

25

Poor

32%

53

31

  7

32

32

Don’t know/Unsure (vol)

  3%

  3

  4

  1

  3

  3

Question:  Later this year, there will be an election for President of the United States. If the election were held today do you think you would vote for …. or …. [ROTATE] ?  If “unsure,” or “don’t know” ask “which way do you lean?”

October 29

Base = XXX likely voters

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

George Bush, the Republican Candidate

38%

 9

34

79

40

37

      lean Bush

  2%

 1

  5

  2

  1

 3

John Kerry, the Democratic candidate

45%

77

38

12

44

45

     lean Kerry

  2%

 3

  3

--

  1

 2

Nader or Other (vol.)

  2%

 2

  4

 2

  3

 2

Don’t know (vol.)

11%

 9

18

 7

11

11

October 22

Base = 503 likely voters

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

George Bush, the Republican Candidate

40

 9

33

85

40

40

      lean Bush

 1

--

 2

  2

  1

 2

John Kerry, the Democratic candidate

46

80

30

  8

47

45

     lean Kerry

 3

 5

 3

 1

 3

 3

Nader or Other (vol.)

 1

 1

 4

 1

 2

 1

Don’t know (vol.)

 9

 6

28

 4

 9

 9

Post-debate: Oct. 15

Base= 508 likely voters

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

George Bush, the Republican Candidate

42

11

43

80

42

42

      lean Bush

  4

  2

  6

  6

 5

  3

John Kerry, the Democratic candidate

44

78

31

  7

41

47

     lean Kerry

  2

 3

 2

  1

 2

  2

Nader or Other (vol.)

  2

 2

 4

  2

 3

  1

Don’t know (vol.)

  6

 5

15

  4

 7

  6

Post-debate: Oct. 12

Base= 500 likely voters

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

George Bush, the Republican Candidate

40

 9

34

81

40

39

      lean Bush

  3

 2

 5

  4

  3

  3

John Kerry, the Democratic candidate

46

81

36

  6

43

49

     lean Kerry

  2

 2

--

  2

 2

  2

Nader or Other (vol.)

  2

 2

  2

--

 3

  1

Don’t know (vol.)

  8

 4

25

  6

10

  7

Post-debate: Oct. 7

Base= 500 likely voters

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

George Bush, the Republican Candidate

39

 9

26

79

43

36

      lean Bush

  2

 1

--

  4

  2

  2

John Kerry, the Democratic candidate

47

79

44

10

46

48

     lean Kerry

 2

 4

  2

  1

  3

 2

Nader or Other (vol.)

 2

 1

  6

  2

  4

 1

Don’t know (vol.)

 8

 7

 23

  4

  4

12

Pre-debate: September 29

Base= 489 likely voters

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

George Bush, the Republican Candidate

41

11

35

85

45

38

      lean Bush

  3

 2

--

3

  1 

  4

John Kerry, the Democratic candidate

43

76

35

5

43

43

     lean Kerry

  2

  3

 3

1

  2

  2

Nader or Other (vol.)

  2

  --

 1

2

  2

  2

Don’t know (vol.)

10

  7

 25

4

  8

11

Question: In deciding their vote for president, people focus on different things. Which one of the following issues is the most important to you in deciding who to vote for for President…?

On that issue, _____, which candidate would do a better job?

[ROTATE LIST]

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Men

Women

Bush

Kerry

N=

The state of the economy

18

22

23

13

24

14

19

68

101

national security and the war on terror

42

26

38

66

42

43

68

21

233

quality of the environment

 2

  3

  3

  2

 2

 3

  8

85

13

providing health care insurance

11

17

  8

  5

 9

13

19

66

59

improving education

  6

  7

  4

 5

 6

 5

32

52

31

Other (vol)

  1

--

  1

 1

  1

 1

None (vol.)

  2

 1

  3

 1

  3

--

All (vol.)

17

23

21

 9

12

22

Don’t know (vol.)

  1

--

  1

--

  1

--

Question: Now, in deciding their vote for president, people also focus on different qualities in a candidate.  Which one of the following qualities is most important to you in deciding who to vote for for President…?

And which candidate is better described by that quality…?

[ROTATE LIST]

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Men

Women

Bush

Kerry

N=

Being a strong leader

32

24

28

46

34

30

70

23

174

Understanding the concerns of the average person

20

29

23

  8

21

20

12

69

111

Honest and trustworthy

34

35

25

36

32

35

38

45

185

Other (vol)

  1

--

  4

  1

  2

  1

None (vol.)

--

--

  1

--

--

--

All (vol.)

12

10

20

   9

  9

13

Don’t know (vol.)

  1

  1

--

   1

  1

  2

Question: How well is the U.S. military effort in Iraq going…?

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Sept

04

July

‘04

April

 ‘04

Jan

‘04

Sept

 ‘03

Very well

 8%

  3

  5

17

 9

17

17

21

21

Fairly well

33%

15

31

57

31

42

38

48

40

Not too well

27%

37

24

16

31

25

27

19

25

Not at all well

28%

42

35

  9

26

13

12

  8

10

Unsure

 3%

  3

  5

  1

 4

 4

  6

  3

  4

Question:  Considering everything, do you think the United States did the right thing in going to war with Iraq, or do you think it was a mistake?

Party

Gender

All

Dem

Ind.

Rep

Men

Women

Right thing

41%

17

36

74

44

39

Mistake

52%

77

53

21

51

53

Don’t know (vol.)

  7%

 6

11

  6

 6

 9

Question: Now, regardless of which candidate you want to win, if you had to guess, who would you say is going to win the election for President in November… or …?

Oct. 29

All

Dem

Ind

Rep.

John Kerry

31%

50

28

11

George Bush

49%

30

48

75

Don’t Know/Too close to call [vol]

20%

20

25

14

Oct. 22

All

Dem

Ind

Rep.

John Kerry

30%

47

19

14

George Bush

49%

32

53

72

Don’t Know/Too close to call [vol]

20%

21

28

14

Oct. 12

All

Dem

Ind

Rep.

John Kerry

31%

53

23

  6

George Bush

49%

29

48

76

Don’t Know/Too close to call [vol]

19%

18

29

18

Post-debate: Oct. 7

All

Dem

Ind

Rep.

John Kerry

23%

37

23

 7

George Bush

56%

41

41

78

Don’t Know/Too close to call [vol]

21%

21

35

15

Pre-debate: Sept 29

All

Dem

Ind

Rep.

John Kerry

22%

34

18

 8

George Bush

66%

49

60

88

Don’t Know/Too close to call [vol]

13%

16

22

  4

Question: Regardless of who you think will win the national election, which candidate do you think will get the most votes in New Jersey?

All

Dem

Ind

Rep.

John Kerry

68%

81

65

58

George Bush

17%

10

16

24

Don’t Know/Too close to call [vol]

15%

  9

19

18