Tables

Question: In your opinion, do you believe that the country is moving in the right direction or do you believe it has gotten off on the wrong track?

October 29

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

37%

12

29

73

42

34

Wrong track

52%

76

56

20

48

55

Donít know/Unsure

11%

12

14

††7

10

11

October 22

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

36%

9

33

72

37

35

Wrong track

52%

84

44

15

53

52

Donít know/Unsure

12%

†8

24

13

11

14

October 15

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

36%

12

35

67

36

36

Wrong track

54%

84

46

19

52

55

Donít know/Unsure

11%

† 4

20

14

13

† 9

October 12

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

36%

13

34

66

37

34

Wrong track

53%

81

51

18

51

55

Donít know/Unsure

12%

† 6

16

16

12

11

Post-debate: Oct. 7

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

34%

11

17

67

39

31

Wrong track

54%

79

61

21

52

55

Donít know/Unsure

12%

10

22

12

10

14

Pre-debate: Sept 29

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Right direction

35%

11

19

73

41

31

Wrong track

52%

79

56

17

50

54

Donít know/Unsure

13%

10

26

10

† 9

16


Question: How would you rate the job George W. Bush is doing as Presidentóexcellent, good, only fair, or poor?

Oct. 29

All

Dem

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

Excellent

15%

†2

†9

33

16

14

Good

26%

13

23

45

27

26

Only fair

24%

29

34

14

22

25

Poor

32%

53

31

† 7

32

32

Donít know/Unsure (vol)

† 3%

††3

††4

† 1

† 3

††3


Question: †Later this year, there will be an election for President of the United States. If the election were held today do you think you would vote for Ö. or Ö. [ROTATE] ?† If ďunsure,Ē or ďdonít knowĒ ask ďwhich way do you lean?Ē

October 29

Base = XXX likely voters

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

George Bush, the Republican Candidate

38%

†9

34

79

40

37

††††† lean Bush

††2%

†1

††5

††2

† 1

†3

John Kerry, the Democratic candidate

45%

77

38

12

44

45

†††† lean Kerry

† 2%

†3

††3

--

††1

†2

Nader or Other (vol.)

† 2%

†2

††4

†2

††3

†2

Donít know (vol.)

11%

†9

18

†7

11

11

October 22

Base = 503 likely voters

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

George Bush, the Republican Candidate

40

†9

33

85

40

40

††††† lean Bush

†1

--

†2

† 2

††1

†2

John Kerry, the Democratic candidate

46

80

30

† 8

47

45

†††† lean Kerry

†3

†5

†3

†1

†3

†3

Nader or Other (vol.)

†1

†1

†4

†1

†2

†1

Donít know (vol.)

†9

†6

28

†4

†9

†9

Post-debate: Oct. 15

Base= 508 likely voters

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

George Bush, the Republican Candidate

42

11

43

80

42

42

††††† lean Bush

† 4

† 2

† 6

† 6

†5

† 3

John Kerry, the Democratic candidate

44

78

31

† 7

41

47

†††† lean Kerry

† 2

†3

†2

† 1

†2

† 2

Nader or Other (vol.)

† 2

†2

†4

† 2

†3

† 1

Donít know (vol.)

† 6

†5

15

† 4

†7

† 6

Post-debate: Oct. 12

Base= 500 likely voters

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

George Bush, the Republican Candidate

40

†9

34

81

40

39

††††† lean Bush

† 3

†2

†5

† 4

† 3

† 3

John Kerry, the Democratic candidate

46

81

36

† 6

43

49

†††† lean Kerry

† 2

†2

--

† 2

†2

† 2

Nader or Other (vol.)

† 2

†2

† 2

--

†3

† 1

Donít know (vol.)

† 8

†4

25

† 6

10

† 7

Post-debate: Oct. 7

Base= 500 likely voters

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

George Bush, the Republican Candidate

39

†9

26

79

43

36

††††† lean Bush

† 2

†1

--

† 4

† 2

† 2

John Kerry, the Democratic candidate

47

79

44

10

46

48

†††† lean Kerry

†2

†4

† 2

† 1

† 3

†2

Nader or Other (vol.)

†2

†1

† 6

† 2

† 4

†1

Donít know (vol.)

†8

†7

†23

† 4

† 4

12

Pre-debate: September 29

Base= 489 likely voters

All

Dem.

Ind.

Rep.

Men

Women

George Bush, the Republican Candidate

41

11

35

85

45

38

††††† lean Bush

† 3

†2

--

3

† 1†

† 4

John Kerry, the Democratic candidate

43

76

35

5

43

43

†††† lean Kerry

† 2

† 3

†3

1

† 2

† 2

Nader or Other (vol.)

† 2

† --

†1

2

† 2

† 2

Donít know (vol.)

10

† 7

†25

4

† 8

11


Question: In deciding their vote for president, people focus on different things. Which one of the following issues is the most important to you in deciding who to vote for for PresidentÖ?

On that issue, _____, which candidate would do a better job?

[ROTATE LIST]

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Men

Women

Bush

Kerry

N=

The state of the economy

18

22

23

13

24

14

19

68

101

national security and the war on terror

42

26

38

66

42

43

68

21

233

quality of the environment

†2

††3

† 3

† 2

†2

†3

† 8

85

13

providing health care insurance

11

17

† 8

† 5

†9

13

19

66

59

improving education

††6

† 7

††4

†5

†6

†5

32

52

31

Other (vol)

††1

--

††1

†1

††1

†1

 

None (vol.)

††2

†1

††3

†1

††3

--

All (vol.)

17

23

21

†9

12

22

Donít know (vol.)

††1

--

††1

--

† 1

--


Question: Now, in deciding their vote for president, people also focus on different qualities in a candidate.† Which one of the following qualities is most important to you in deciding who to vote for for PresidentÖ?

And which candidate is better described by that qualityÖ?

[ROTATE LIST]

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Men

Women

Bush

Kerry

N=

Being a strong leader

32

24

28

46

34

30

70

23

174

Understanding the concerns of the average person

20

29

23

† 8

21

20

12

69

111

Honest and trustworthy

34

35

25

36

32

35

38

45

185

Other (vol)

† 1

--

† 4

† 1

††2

††1

 

None (vol.)

--

--

† 1

--

--

--

All (vol.)

12

10

20

†† 9

† 9

13

Donít know (vol.)

† 1

† 1

--

†† 1

† 1

† 2


Question: How well is the U.S. military effort in Iraq goingÖ?

 

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Sept

04

July

Ď04

April

†Ď04

Jan

Ď04

Sept

†Ď03

Very well

†8%

† 3

† 5

17

†9

17

17

21

21

Fairly well

33%

15

31

57

31

42

38

48

40

Not too well

27%

37

24

16

31

25

27

19

25

Not at all well

28%

42

35

††9

26

13

12

† 8

10

Unsure

†3%

††3

† 5

††1

†4

†4

† 6

† 3

† 4


Question:† Considering everything, do you think the United States did the right thing in going to war with Iraq, or do you think it was a mistake?

 

Party

Gender

 

All

Dem

Ind.

Rep

Men

Women

Right thing

41%

17

36

74

44

39

Mistake

52%

77

53

21

51

53

Donít know (vol.)

† 7%

†6

11

† 6

†6

†9


Question: Now, regardless of which candidate you want to win, if you had to guess, who would you say is going to win the election for President in NovemberÖ or Ö?

Oct. 29

All

Dem

Ind

Rep.

John Kerry

31%

50

28

11

George Bush

49%

30

48

75

Donít Know/Too close to call [vol]

20%

20

25

14

Oct. 22

All

Dem

Ind

Rep.

John Kerry

30%

47

19

14

George Bush

49%

32

53

72

Donít Know/Too close to call [vol]

20%

21

28

14

Oct. 12

All

Dem

Ind

Rep.

John Kerry

31%

53

23

† 6

George Bush

49%

29

48

76

Donít Know/Too close to call [vol]

19%

18

29

18

Post-debate: Oct. 7

All

Dem

Ind

Rep.

John Kerry

23%

37

23

†7

George Bush

56%

41

41

78

Donít Know/Too close to call [vol]

21%

21

35

15

Pre-debate: Sept 29

All

Dem

Ind

Rep.

John Kerry

22%

34

18

†8

George Bush

66%

49

60

88

Donít Know/Too close to call [vol]

13%

16

22

† 4


Question: Regardless of who you think will win the national election, which candidate do you think will get the most votes in New Jersey?

 

All

Dem

Ind

Rep.

John Kerry

68%

81

65

58

George Bush

17%

10

16

24

Donít Know/Too close to call [vol]

15%

† 9

19

18

Contacts:
Rick Thigpen, academic associate, 609-394-0888.
Steve Salmore, research professor of political science: 973-292-3633.
Peter Woolley, coordinator: 973-443-8725

Radio actuality line: (201) 692-2846.

For more information, please call (201) 692-7032.

see also:

Survey Analysis
Salmore's Analysis
Thigpen's Analysis
Survey Details

Copyright © 2004, Fairleigh Dickinson University. All rights reserved. FDU PublicMind Poll [Latest update 041029]