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Question: Later this year, there will
be an election for President of the United States. If the election
were held today do you think you would vote for …. or …. [ROTATE]
? If “unsure,” or “don’t know” ask “which way do you lean?”
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October 29
Base = XXX likely voters
|
All
|
Dem.
|
Ind.
|
Rep.
|
Men
|
Women
|
|
George Bush, the Republican Candidate
|
38%
|
9
|
34
|
79
|
40
|
37
|
|
lean
Bush
|
2%
|
1
|
5
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
|
John Kerry, the Democratic candidate
|
45%
|
77
|
38
|
12
|
44
|
45
|
|
lean
Kerry
|
2%
|
3
|
3
|
--
|
1
|
2
|
|
Nader or Other (vol.)
|
2%
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
|
Don’t
know (vol.)
|
11%
|
9
|
18
|
7
|
11
|
11
|
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October 22
Base = 503 likely voters
|
All
|
Dem.
|
Ind.
|
Rep.
|
Men
|
Women
|
|
George Bush, the Republican Candidate
|
40
|
9
|
33
|
85
|
40
|
40
|
|
lean
Bush
|
1
|
--
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
|
John Kerry, the Democratic candidate
|
46
|
80
|
30
|
8
|
47
|
45
|
|
lean
Kerry
|
3
|
5
|
3
|
1
|
3
|
3
|
|
Nader or Other (vol.)
|
1
|
1
|
4
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
|
Don’t
know (vol.)
|
9
|
6
|
28
|
4
|
9
|
9
|
|
Post-debate: Oct. 15
Base= 508 likely voters
|
All
|
Dem.
|
Ind.
|
Rep.
|
Men
|
Women
|
|
George Bush, the Republican Candidate
|
42
|
11
|
43
|
80
|
42
|
42
|
|
lean
Bush
|
4
|
2
|
6
|
6
|
5
|
3
|
|
John Kerry, the Democratic candidate
|
44
|
78
|
31
|
7
|
41
|
47
|
|
lean
Kerry
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
|
Nader or Other (vol.)
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
3
|
1
|
|
Don’t
know (vol.)
|
6
|
5
|
15
|
4
|
7
|
6
|
|
Post-debate: Oct. 12
Base= 500 likely voters
|
All
|
Dem.
|
Ind.
|
Rep.
|
Men
|
Women
|
|
George Bush, the Republican Candidate
|
40
|
9
|
34
|
81
|
40
|
39
|
|
lean
Bush
|
3
|
2
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
|
John Kerry, the Democratic candidate
|
46
|
81
|
36
|
6
|
43
|
49
|
|
lean
Kerry
|
2
|
2
|
--
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
|
Nader or Other (vol.)
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
--
|
3
|
1
|
|
Don’t
know (vol.)
|
8
|
4
|
25
|
6
|
10
|
7
|
|
Post-debate: Oct. 7
Base= 500 likely voters
|
All
|
Dem.
|
Ind.
|
Rep.
|
Men
|
Women
|
|
George Bush, the Republican Candidate
|
39
|
9
|
26
|
79
|
43
|
36
|
|
lean
Bush
|
2
|
1
|
--
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
|
John
Kerry, the Democratic candidate
|
47
|
79
|
44
|
10
|
46
|
48
|
|
lean
Kerry
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
2
|
|
Nader or Other (vol.)
|
2
|
1
|
6
|
2
|
4
|
1
|
|
Don’t
know (vol.)
|
8
|
7
|
23
|
4
|
4
|
12
|
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Pre-debate: September 29
Base= 489 likely voters
|
All
|
Dem.
|
Ind.
|
Rep.
|
Men
|
Women
|
|
George Bush, the Republican Candidate
|
41
|
11
|
35
|
85
|
45
|
38
|
|
lean
Bush
|
3
|
2
|
--
|
3
|
1
|
4
|
|
John Kerry, the Democratic candidate
|
43
|
76
|
35
|
5
|
43
|
43
|
|
lean
Kerry
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
|
Nader or Other (vol.)
|
2
|
--
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
|
Don’t
know (vol.)
|
10
|
7
|
25
|
4
|
8
|
11
|