Response by Rick Thigpen

Party loyalties and the President's performance, especially in regard to Iraq, are the fundamental forces shaping this election. The electorate's response to a Latino candidate on the statewide ballot is the wildcard.  Beyond that, this race is beginning to follow a pattern similar to recent statewide elections.  Perhaps a little truer this year than in the past, the Democratic candidate's margin of victory will be determined by non-white voter turnout.

Kean's persistently negative tone has resulted in his own negatives going up. That is poetic justice.  In all fairness, Kean has been forced to labor under the crushing burden of a close association with an unpopular President conducting an unpopular war in a manner that is widely viewed as unsatisfactory.   As if that's not enough, he is also a loyal member of a Republican party rocked by scandal and burdened by the pursuit of policies that New Jersey voters do not support.  New Jersey clearly wants a change of direction in Washington.  Senator Menendez is knowledgeable, capable and has convinced voters he will fight against the Bush agenda.

see also:
Survey Analysis
Republican Analysis
Tabular Results
Survey Details

Comment by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind Academic Associate, Rick Thigpen (J.D., Columbia University Law School). Rick is a former Executive Director of the New Jersey Democratic Party, now a principal in 1868 Public Affairs. He is also a campaign coordinator for the Essex County Democratic Party. Rick Thigpen, Esq. can be reached at (609) 394-0888.