Question: In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

All

Vote Menendez

Vote Kean

Iraq was a mistake

Iraq was right thing

US headed in right direction

US off on wrong track

Oct

Aug

Approve

32%

32

67

10

77

83

11

34%

35%

Disapprove

63%

65

27

86

17

15

84

59%

57%

DK/mixed

  5%

  3

  6

 4

  6

  2

  4

  7%

  7%

Question:  Have you heard of [rotate list]? If you haven't just tell me. [If yes, ask:] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of …? Would that be very or somewhat?

[ROTATE NAMES]

Haven't heard of

Heard of

Very
Favor-
able

Some-
what
Favor-
able

Some-
what
Unfavor-
able

Very
Unfavor-
able

No opinion

Bob Menendez

3%

97%

13

23

16

19

28

Previous surveys…

Menendez 10/06

 8%

92%

15

24

14 

20

27

Menendez 8/06

25%

76%

10

23

16

13

39

Menendez 7/06

24%

76%

13

23

14

11

40

Menendez 4/06 

37%

63%

10

29

9

10

42

Menendez 3/06

35%

65%

12

28

6

7

46

Menendez 1/06

40%

60%

12

21

11

6

50

Menendez 9/05

64%

36%

14

27

16

5

38

Menendez 7/05

62%

38%

16

33

10

6

36

Tom Kean, Jr.

7%

93%

12

22

20

15

30

Previous surveys…

Kean 10/06

12% 

88%

16

22

17

11

34

Kean 8/06

17%

83%

15

29

10

4

42

Kean 7/06

21%

79%

12

27

12

6

43

Kean 4/06

28%

72%

13

26

10

4

47

Kean 3/06

38%

62%

12

28

7

5

47

Kean 1/06

38%

62%

12

29

8

4

48

Kean 9/05

54%

46%

16

30

13

3

38

Question:  Have you heard of [rotate list]? If you haven't just tell me. [If yes, ask:] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of …? Would that be very or somewhat?

[ROTATE NAMES]

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Men

Women

White

Non-
White

Bob Menendez

97%

98

96

98

97

98

98

95

Very Favorable

13%

21

10

5

13

14

10

24

Somewhat Favorable

23%

36

23

5

23

22

23

24

Somewhat Unfavorable

16%

10

18

21

18

13

16

12

Very Unfavorable

19%

3

20

40

22

15

23

1

No Opinion

28%

27

25

27

21

33

26

35

Tom Kean, Jr.

93%

93

94

93

94

92

96

83

Very Favorable

12%

2

11

23

13

9

13

2

Somewhat Favorable

22%

12

16

35

22

20

25

6

Somewhat Unfavorable

20%

26

22

9

23

15

19

19

Very Unfavorable

15%

24

14

3

16

13

14

15

No Opinion

30%

28

32

24

20

36

25

41

Question: Later this year there will be an election for New Jersey's U.S. Senator between Bob Menendez, the Democrat and Tom Kean, Jr, the Republican? So far, how much have you heard or read about this race…[READ]?

All

Demo-
crats

Indepen-
dents

Republi-
cans

Oct.

Sept.

July

April

A great deal

52

55

54

48

32%

13%

14%

7%

Some

27

24

28

29

37%

28%

25%

14%

Just a little

18

18

16

17

31%

34%

35%

51%

Nothing

3

2

2

5

NA

26%

27%

29%

Question:  If the election for U.S. Senate were held right now, and you had to make a choice, which candidate would you vote for… or … ?  [If choose ask: “Are you sure or might you change your mind?” If “unsure” ask:] Which way do you lean…or…?

Rotate names

All

D

I

R

con

mod

lib

Men

Wom

White

Non-
White

US right direction

US wrong track

Oct

Bob Menendez, the Democrat

45

76

38

11

21

42

72

46

45

43

56

15

59

42%

   Lean Menendez

3

4

1

0

 4

  1

  2

  3

  2

  2

  5

  1

  4

4%

Total Menendez

48%

80

39

12

25

44

75

49

47

45

61

16

62

46%

Tom Kean, Jr., the Republican

36

8

27

78

63

35

12

40

31

42

11

73

21

37%

        Lean Kean

2

 1

 4

 3

  0

 5

 3

 2

 3

  2

  3

  2

  2

2%

Total Kean

38%

 9

30

81

63

40

15

42

34

44

14

75

23

39%

Unsure

14%

11

30

8

12

16

10

 9

19

11

25

10

14

13%

Question Ordering: Questions about President Bush and the military action in Iraq were placed either before questions about the Senate race or after the questions about the Senate race.

All

Ask about President and Iraq Before

Ask about Bush, Iraq After

Bob Menendez, the Democrat

48

47

49

Tom Kean, Jr., The Republican

38

40

36

Unsure

14

13

16

Menendez Advantage

10

7

13

Republican House Candidate

29

30

28

Democratic House Candidate

47

46

47

Unsure

25

24

25

Democratic House Advantage

18

16

19

Question: Which candidate for Senate… or … is best described by…?

rotate names

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

White

Non-White

Oct

Sept

July

Honest, trustworthy                                        

Bob Menendez

23%

39

12

 7

20

37

21%

15

16

Tom Kean, Jr.

31%

11

27

61

35

18

32%

26

20

neither (vol)

24%

28

29

17

24

25

16%

14

13

both (vol)

 4%

5

2

 3

4

2

6%

9

8

don't know (vol)

18%

17

30

12

18

18

 26%

36

42

Understands the concerns of the average person

Bob Menendez

40%

67

27

14

37

54

33%

23

31

Tom Kean, Jr.

23%

8

14

47

26

11

24%

21

17

neither (vol)

17%

13

24

21

17

15

15%

13

9

both (vol)

4%

3

5

6

5

2

5%

6

4

don't know (vol)

15%

9

30

13

14

17

 22%

37

39

Has the background and experience to be a good US Senator

Bob Menendez

41%

65

30

18

39

50

33%

27

30

Tom Kean, Jr.

26%

11

25

48

28

18

26%

23

22

neither (vol)

12%

9

16

13

12

12

12%

7

6

both (vol)

  6%

6

6

7

6

6

6%

7

6

don't know (vol)

15%

10

24

14

14

14

 24%

36

37

Question: Now, regardless of which candidate you want to win, if you had to guess, who would you say is going to win the election for Senate in November… or …?

Rotate names

All

Dem

Ind

Rep.

Oct

Sept

July

Bob Menendez

56%

75

46

41

 48%

47%

53%

Tom Kean, Jr.

25%

13

28

37

 30%

28%

29%

Don't Know (vol.)

18%

11

23

22

 21%

24%

18%

Question: Is there anything in particular that you like about Bob Menendez?/ Is there anything in particular that you dislike about Bob Menendez? (Rotate names of candidates)

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

White

Non-
White

Oct

Likes

Mention of Iraq/Bush/War on Terror

5%

  8

  4

 2

 5

  3

6%

Any other response

33%

42

38

20

32

44

31%

Nothing

48%

38

43

64

50

35

42%

Don't Know/No Response

14%

12

15

14

13

18

21%

Dislikes

Mention of Ethics/Reform/Corruption

20%

14

18

28

23

  8

15%

Any other response

20%

16

31

23

23

10

21%

Nothing

45%

57

35

33

40

64

44%

Don't Know/No Response

15%

13

16

16

14

18

20%

Question: Is there anything in particular that you like about Tom Kean, Jr.?/ Is there anything in particular that you dislike about Tom Kean, Jr.? (Rotate names of candidates)

All

Dem

Ind

Rep.

Oct.

Likes

Mention of Ethics/Reform/Corruption

7%

3

8

11

7%

Any other response

25%

15

31

38

28%

Nothing

54%

70

46

38

42%

Don't Know/No Response

14%

13

15

14

24%

Dislikes

Mention of Iraq/Bush/War on Terror

8%

11

7

4

7%

Any other response

27%

31

38

19

21%

Nothing

50%

44

42

60

48%

Don't Know/No Response

15%

14

13

16

24%

Question Ordering: Open-ended questions about likes and dislikes were placed either before questions about the Senate race or after the questions about the Senate race.

All

Ask: likes and dislikes before

Ask: likes and dislikes after

Bob Menendez, the Democrat

48

47

48

Tom Kean, Jr., The Republican

38

40

36

Unsure

14

13

16

Menendez Advantage

10

7

12

Question: How strongly are your views of this Senate election influenced by national concerns, such as the economy or the military action in Iraq?

All

Dem

Ind

Rep

Oct

Sept

July

Very strongly

50%

63

44

37

 46%

46%

52%

Somewhat strongly

27%

25

26

31

 30%

30%

25%

Just a little

11%

  8

16

13

 12%

11%

10%

Not at all

10%

  3

13

17

   9%

9%

8%

Don't know/ref. (vol)

2%

  1

  1

  2

   3%

5%

4%