FDU PublicMind - November 2, 2006 Release

Background Memo

The most recent survey by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind was conducted by telephone from October 25 through October 31 using a randomly selected statewide sample of 577 likely registered voters. The sampling error for 577 respondents is +/- 4 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers. PublicMind interviews are conducted by TMR, Inc. of Parsippany, NJ. Professionally trained interviewers use a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) System. Random selection is achieved by computerized random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a phone number (including those with unlisted numbers) an equal chance of being selected. Registered voters are screened through a series of questions. Results are mathematically weighted to match known demographics.

The wording of the questions included in this release are as follows:

Question: In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

Question: Have you heard of [rotate list]? If you haven't just tell me. [If yes, ask:] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of …? Would that be very or somewhat?

Bob Menendez
Tom Kean, Jr.

Question: If the election for U.S. Senate were held right now, and you had to make a choice, which candidate would you vote for… or … ? [If choose ask: “Are you sure or might you change your mind?” If “unsure” ask:] Which way do you lean…or…?

Bob Menendez, the Democrat
Tom Kean, Jr., the Republican

Question: Which candidate for Senate… or … is best described by…?

Honest, trustworthy
Understands the concerns of the average person
Has the background and experience to be a good US Senator

Question: Now, regardless of which candidate you want to win, if you had to guess, who would you say is going to win the election for Senate in November… or …?

Question: Is there anything in particular that you like about Bob Menendez?/ Is there anything in particular that you dislike about Bob Menendez? (Rotate names of candidates)

Question: Is there anything in particular that you like about Tom Kean, Jr.?/ Is there anything in particular that you dislike about Tom Kean, Jr.? (Rotate names of candidates)

Question Ordering: Open-ended questions about likes and dislikes were placed either before questions about the Senate race or after the questions about the Senate race.

Question: How strongly are your views of this Senate election influenced by national concerns, such as the economy or the military action in Iraq?