2001 Governor's Race a/o May 3, 2001

Democratic Analysis:

Among those likely to vote in this November's general election, we find a slight generic preference for a Republican party candidate. In a head to head gubernatorial match up, there is a virtual dead heat between the likely major party nominees Bob Franks and Jim McGreevey, with McGreevey outperforming the generic Democratic candidate. Democrats, Republicans and Independents mostly agree on the agenda, that taxes and education are the two most important problems that the candidates for Governor should be discussing. Although Democrats emphasize the importance of schools a little more.

This poll drives home the Democratic Party's challenge this fall to expand the electorate. Democrats will win if they turnout those less likely to vote. With a Capitol Hill Republican, Bob Franks, as its latest standard bearer, the Republican party has obviously chosen to cast its fortunes with a relatively narrow slice of the general population. One of the keys to success for the McGreevey campaign this fall will be to make the election day electorate more reflective of this state. If Jim McGreevey can keep doing what he is already clearly doing right and simultaneously connect with New Jersey's booming demographic diversity, he will be the first New Jersey Governor elected in the 21st century.

see also:
Director's Analysis
Republican Analysis
Tabular Results
Survey Details

Democratic analysis by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind Academic Associate, Rick Thigpen (J.D., Columbia University Law School). Rick is a former Executive Director of the New Jersey Democratic Party and now a partner in The Strategy Group.

Rick Thigpen, Esq. can be reached at (609) 394-0888