Franks Leading Schundler in the GOP Gubernatorial Primary Race

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Republican Analysis
Democratic Analysis
Tabular Results
Survey Details

Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind pre-primary survey shows that former House member Bob Franks enjoys a considerable lead over his main rival, Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler, in the contest for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. Among our sample of 324 likely Republican primary voters, Franks ran ahead of Schundler, 44% to 20%, with the balance of our respondents undecided.

Franks' advantage over Schundler was apparent across a range of GOP subgroups. He ran ahead of Schundler in all regions of the state, in all age groups, and across the ideological spectrum. Schundler did have some areas of relative strength, notably among strong conservatives where he comes close to outpolling Franks. Franks' 2-point lead of 37 percent to 35 percent among strong conservatives is well within the poll's 5.5 percent margin of error. Among age groups, Franks' biggest lead over Schundler was within the crucial block of GOP primary voters 65 years of age and older - who make up a significant portion of the GOP primary electorate. The survey data also reveal a slight gender gap between the two candidates' supporters: whereas males in our sample opted for Franks over Schundler by 27 percent, females preferred Franks to Schundler by a somewhat smaller margin of 21 percent.

Although Schundler was outpolled by Franks among many GOP subgroups, it is clear that his "outsider" message resonates with some New Jerseyans. Indeed, Schundler ran considerably ahead of Franks among voters who had an unfavorable view of acting governor Don DiFrancesco and former governor Christine Todd Whitman. GOP primary voters who rated likely Democratic nominee Jim McGreevey unfavorably were also significantly more likely to support Schundler over Franks. Consistent with Schundler's outsider appeal, 15 percent of his supporters rated government corruption and ethics as the most important issue in the campaign, whereas only 9 percent of Franks' supporters did so.

Name recognition and favorability ratings provide some insight into the factors driving the primary contest numbers. Schundler, the results show, suffers from low name recognition. Despite the fact that he's been campaigning for several months, fully 22 percent of likely GOP primary voters had never heard of him. By contrast, only 6 percent of likely GOP primary voters in our sample had never heard of Franks. Moreover, Franks' favorable ratings outnumber his unfavorable ratings by more than 11 to 1, whereas Schundler enjoys a much smaller (4 to 1) favorable-to-unfavorable ratio. Clearly, Franks is reaping electoral benefits from his recent run for the U.S. Senate, when many GOP voters supported him not just in the general election but in the primary contest as well.

The survey also offers a glimpse of the issues most important to New Jersey's likely GOP primary voters. Taxes/spending, education, and the environment were, respectively, the top three issues on the minds of GOP primary voters. Yet these three issues were not equally important across all Republican subgroups. The more conservative a respondent was, the more likely he or she was to choose taxes/spending as the most important campaign issue. By contrast, moderate and liberal Republicans were more likely than other ideological subgroups within the GOP to see the environment as the most important campaign issue. And while education was clearly on the minds of many GOP primary voters, respondents with children were, not surprisingly, significantly more likely than those without children to view education as a top priority campaign issue.

Poll Analysis by Fairleigh Dickinson Professor, Dr. Bruce Larson

Dr. Bruce Larson can be reached at (973) 443-8727