Likely Republican Primary Voters

Likely Republican Primary Voters

Release 04-2001-2

Methodology

The most recent Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind Poll was conducted by telephone from April 28 through May 1st. A random sample of 324 likely Republican primary voters were interviewed. The sample was drawn from registered voter lists from all 21 counties in New Jersey. Only voters who had cast ballots in the Republican primary election in 2000 and declared that the chances of their voting this June were either "excellent" or "good were interviewed. The voter lists from which the sample was drawn are maintained by Labels & Lists, Inc. of Bellevue, WA.

All sample surveys are subject to two kinds of error. For a sample of 325, the sampling error is +/-5.5% at the 95% confidence level. This means that 19 times out of 20, a random sample will yield results that are no more that 5.5% different than if all likely voters were interviewed. The +/- 5.5% sampling error holds for results near 50%. For percents closer to 10% or 90%, the sampling error is +/-3.1%. In addition, all survey results are subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which can not be measured, arises from a number of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible voters refusing to be interviewed), question wording, the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.

The interviews were conducted by TMR, Inc. of Parsippany, NJ. Professionally trained interviewers using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing system) conducted all interviews .

Survey Wording

The wording of the questions included in this release are as follows:

If the primary election for Governor were held Today, and you had to make a choice, would you Vote for (ROTATE) … 44% Franks 20% Schundler 35% Unsure/ refuse Now I'm going to read you the names of several prominent people in public life in New Jersey. For each one please tell me whether or not you have heard of them? Have you ever heard of... (START AT ROTATION POINT)? IF HEARD OF ASK: Do you have a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of … (Name)…?   NOT HEARD FAVOR- ABLE UNFAV- ORABLE DK/ REFUSED Don DiFrancesco 8% 35% 29% 27% Jim McGreevey 9 31 31 28 Bret Schundler 22 43 10 22 Christie Whitman 0 69 24 7 Bob Franks 6 69 6 19 Thinking about the election for Governor this November, what do you think are the one or two most important problems the candidates should be discussing? (PROBE FOR TWO ANSWERS) 10% DEVELOPMENT/TRAFFIC 45% TAXES/SPENDING 9% ECONOMY/JOBS/ HIGH PRICES 32% EDUCATION/ SCHOOLS 16% HEALTH COSTS/ SENIOR ISSUES 17% ENVIRONMENT 7% CRIME/DRUGS 10% GOV'T CORRUPTION/ ETHICS 10% OTHER 7% NOTHING/DK/ REFUSED

see also:
Director's Analysis
Democratic Analysis
Republican Analysis
Survey Details