Likely Republican Primary Voters

Republican Analysis:

Bob Franks replacement of Don DiFrancesco in the Republican Gubernatorial Primary was clearly not good news for Bret Schundler. The Fairleigh Dickinson PublicMind poll clearly shows Franks leading Schundler among likely Republican primary voters, but the poll also shows that DiFrancesco had already been seriously weakened by the barrage of negative press stories that preceded his withdrawal and was ripe for defeat. Although over nine in ten had heard of DiFrancesco, unfavorable opinions of him almost outnumbered favorable opinions. Schundler's numbers are much better. His total name recognition was somewhat lower, just under eight in ten, but his favorable - unfavorable ratio was a much stronger four to one. Among strong conservatives, a key group for Schundler and almost a third of Republican primary voters, favorable opinions of Schundler were 25% higher than favorable opinions of the Acting Governor.

Enter Bob Franks and Schundler's support does not seem so impressive. Franks' name recognition is almost universal and favorable opinions of him exceed unfavorable ones by better than eleven to one. Franks numbers - high recognition and high favorables with unfavorables under ten percent -- hold for almost all subgroups including self identified "strong" Republicans and those over 65. This high level of voter support should not be surprising since this year's likely Republican primary voters have already voted for Franks one or two times in the last year.

With the Franks campaign just under way, he starts with a better than two to one lead over Schundler and is well ahead among critical groups of primary voters including "strong" Republicans, college grads, men, and senior who comprise more than half of all Republican primary voters. Schundler is still in the race because of his strong showing with strong conservatives. He runs even with Franks among these ideological voters. But winning strong conservatives alone will not be enough. Schundler needs to expand his support beyond his base. He still has room for growth as voters learn about him from the vigorous TV campaign he has promised. In order to win, however, he will have to forcefully attack Franks and drive up negative opinions about him. He has already started to criticize Franks in his latest radio ad. This kind of negative campaign might not have been necessary if he was still running against DiFrancesco.

see also:
Director's Analysis
Democratic Analysis
Tabular Results
Survey Details

Republican analysis by Fairleigh Dickinson University Research Professor of Political Science, Stephen Salmore (Ph.D., Princeton University). Steve specializes in both national and New Jersey politics and presently operates Raritan Associates, Inc. He is a co-founder of the Eagleton Poll and co-author of Parties, Elections and Campaigns and New Jersey Government and Politics.

Dr. Stephen Salmore can be reached at 973-292-3633